It reminded my football-addled brain of something I wrote last summer about fantasy managers’ overemphasis on what I might call fancy running back metrics. We look to these advanced numbers to concoct a sensible story in our minds about an efficient running back carving out a lead-back role. This, of course, assumes NFL coaches care about metrics or stats in general. They don’t, for the most part, and fantasy players would do well to acknowledge this painful truth.

For most of my time in the fantasy industry, I joined the chorus of metrics nerds pointing to various obscure metrics — rush yards over expected and yards after contact per attempt and breakaway rate and elusiveness rating and EPA per rush and efficiency rating — and screaming from the proverbial rooftop that so-and-so back was destined to overtake the back whose advanced numbers were in the toilet. If one player is better than the other, the thinking goes, that player is going to win. The cream rises to the top, things of that nature.

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That’s not the way it works. It’s never worked that way, actually. NFL coaches treasure a running back’s ability to hang on to the ball and pick up blitzers and get what is blocked, even if none of that adds much to our fantasy box score. Coaches want nothing more than a reliable back. No mistakes. No negative yardage. No blown assignments. Whether or not this is optimal football decision making is beside the point. Fantasy managers have to pay attention to these factors (much) more than they would like. Otherwise our game is all about picking the best players, which of course it is not.

Boring running backs, as I wrote last summer, can be fun for fantasy football. They’re often the ones running routes and getting goal line looks and staying on the field in critical situations. Because, again, coaches love them and trust them implicitly. Many of these boring backs go in the so-called RB Dead Zone or, hark, Beyond The Dead Zone, where folks who went RB-heavy to start the draft aren’t even considering a back.

Those of you who — like me — largely fade running backs in the first five or six rounds have keen interest in boring guys going in round seven, eight, nine, and beyond. Now for some hindsight analysis: Taking two or three boring, later-round running backs worked quite well in 2023.

Raheem Mostert, taken as the 41st back off the draft board last summer, finished the fantasy season as the RB5 in PPR formats (the only legitimate formats). Kyren Williams, the 80th running back off drafts board — another way of saying he was not drafted in 12-team leagues — was fantasy’s seventh highest scoring back despite missing a few games. David Montgomery was the game’s 16th highest scoring back after being drafted as RB31. After being taken as the 27th back off draft boards — behind brother Dalvin — James Cook outscored all but 11 RBs in 2023.

And on and on it goes.

Not every boring middle or late round back is going to work out. Many will flop, possibly overtaken by their more explosive backfield mates favored by the spreadsheet warriors among us. There are, however, plenty of boring running backs who could quite easily work out this season and open avenues for you to stack your roster with elite receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.

Brian Robinson (RB32): A foundational part of any rundown of boring running backs, Robinson started Washington’s opening preseason game and dominated early downs against the Jets. Robinson did, however, share snaps with Austin Ekeler in the red zone in the preseason opener. Robinson could also lose out to Jayden Daniels on some goal line rushes.

So it’s not exactly a gleaming later-round profile for B-Rob (I generally don’t chase backs attached to ultra-mobile QBs). Robinson should be the Commanders’ clear-cut lead back, and in a Washington offense hoping to play fast, play volume could make this Washington backfield far more fantasy friendly than we might think.

Devin Singletary (RB33): Singletary is what we in the industry like to call a System Knower. Why’s that? Well, listen to Giants head coach Brian Daboll — Singletary’s offensive coordinator in Buffalo a few seasons ago — talk about his boring veteran runner.

“Devin’s been a productive back when he was with me at Buffalo,” Daboll said in June. “He knows our system inside and out.”

Coaches value System Knowers. We know this after years of watching underperforming running backs continue to get weekly run in the lead back role because they know the offense better than their backfield mates. That’s Singletary in Daboll’s scheme. If it makes the analytics nerds feel any better, Singletary regularly clocks in among the NFL’s best in yards before contact per rush (he ranked ninth in this category last year, just behind Kyren Williams). Singletary going to be on most of my fantasy squads and I won’t apologize for it.

Javonte Williams (RB34): Broncos head coach Sean Payton said during training camp that Willams was a “completely different” back this summer than he was in summer 2023, when he was only seven months removed from surgery on a catastrophic knee injury he suffered in 2022. Williams led Denver’s backfield by a good margin in 2023 and did almost nothing with that opportunity. All of his metrics tanked and after appearing generational as a rookie, he looked downright ordinary. It was a sad thing to witness.

Well, Williams is another year removed from an injury in which he tore his ACL, PCL, and LCL and he’s looking spry. It’s a jumbled backfield in Denver, to be sure. There’s Williams, big-bodied rookie Audric Estime, and hyper-efficient pass-catching dynamo Jaleel McLaughlin, not to mention Payton favorite and No. 2 back on the depth chart, Samaje Perine. Probably one of these guys is going to be cut before the regular season. I’m guessing it’s Perine, but who knows?

Williams only looks boring if you try to forget about how electric he was before his 2022 knee explosion. Javonte in 2021 led all rushers with at least 150 carries in broken tackle rate; he was fourth in PFF’s elusive rating; he was tops in yards after contact per rush; and he was top ten in yards after the catch per reception. Can Williams get back to that pre-injury form? I don’t know. But as the 34th running back off the board, I’m willing to find out.